While jogging around Town Lake in Austin, Texas, I noticed the city constructing a formal path right next to a worn dirt trail that everyone naturally walks down. Since Anthony vetoed my plan to buy a drone for the perfect aerial shot, here’s a less-than-perfect phone photo instead so you can see what I’m talking about.
These two paths reminded me of a park design concept called “desire path planning.” Planners build the park, wait a year to see where people naturally walk, and then lay down the official paths right over those worn areas. Instead of guessing, they employ patience and a bit of humility in observing where people instinctively go and follow their lead. Brilliant, right?
Inspired Action: Bringing Desire Path Planning to Population Data
Inspired by this, I’ve decided to take a similar approach with population data.
For years, I’ve told you that Census data takes time to collect and process, which means it’s a year or two behind. But I’ve noticed that the demand (Google searches) is for 2024 population data.
And I get it. In a world where:
- You can get groceries delivered to your door in an hour
- You can summon a stranger to drive you across town in minutes
Why shouldn’t you have 2024 demographics in 2024?
Introducing 2024 Population Projections
So I’ve used the latest (2022 or 2023) Census data along with simple projection methods to estimate the 2024 population for zips, cities, and counties.
You can now find these 2024 population projections on our state-demographics.com websites.
How to Use:
- Check out the data for your hometown.
- Look up your county.
- Search for your zip code.
Just select your state and then search for your geography of interest. Let me know what you think!
A Note on Refinement
The projections aren’t perfect yet—especially for zips with major boundary shifts—but like those patient park planners, I’m releasing this concept to the world and will refine it based on feedback and observations (in the least creepy way possible, of course!).
Final Thoughts
I love the concept of desire path planning and wanted to share it with you in case it sparks a solution for your own business.
Thanks for reading!
And as always, I’m here to answer any demographic questions you have—whether it’s about the 2024 projections or the official 2023 Census data release coming in December.